So I was reflecting on my performance of yesterday and trying to rationalise what happened, and why. It seems to me that I was amongst the top 5 riders in the race, and arguably the top 2 or 3. The guy who won (Jeremy), won well, but he beat me by less than half a bike length two weeks ago and I'm sure in a race to the line I've got the beating of him. I may never get the chance to evidence that as he is now a 2nd cat!!
The race was 7 laps of an 8 miles circuit. The finish was on a 1km climb, which wasn’t terribly steep but was quite long, and in three distinct phases. The bottom bit was very difficult if you were not in the first 10 round the corner as it meant you started from almost a dead stop. Having worked this out on lap 1 I was never out of the top 10. There was a couple of very fast descents, and a good 3 mile undulating bit into a head wind before the race swooped round into a long straight and very quick section back to the bottom of the climb. It was pretty obvious to me that the race was going to split. I think only 25 finished in the end (from 60) so it was pretty attritional.
The obligatory early break went 2nd time up the climb. Two guys got away - one of whom I know is reasonably good. He got dropped 3rd time up the climb leaving one up front. What happened next is not entirely clear to me. I was riding in the first 10/15 - probably in the first 3 up the climb - and a few went off the front in ones and twos. Experience tells me that in 3/4 races breaks rarely stay away, and breaks in the first 20 miles "never" stay away. To get into a move at that stage is just guaranteeing yourself a really hard day. Anyway, over the next 5 miles the break got together, and there was 5 upfront which is a dangerous number. I think 5/6 is the best number for a break - enough to work well, not enough people to hide and carry passengers. It also turns out there were 3 from Cambridge CC which was instrumental.
So, we managed to get something of a chase going in the bunch. There were
3/4 people doing consistent turns - of which I was one, and the eventual winner (Jeremy) was another - with perhaps another half a dozen doing the odd turn when we shouted enough. I was happy to ride as I felt really strong and someone had to. Alarm bells started ringing for me when after two full laps we had made no impact into the lead - about 45 seconds. I'm thinking "right, we're working ok here and not catching them at all. They must be on it.". (of course I didn't know at this stage that there were 3 Cambridge riders in the 5 up front so damn right they were working). On reflection I think the issue was that we did not have enough strong riders in the bunch. I was riding at maybe 8/10ths but I think everyone else was a bit fooked, particularly up the climb. The chase continued for 20-25 miles I would guess (No Garmin so don't actually know). At least once up the climb a group of 6 of us rode off the front of the bunch for a few miles, but were caught again in the headwind section.
So with 2 laps to go I notice that Jeremy has disappeared from the working group at the front of the bunch. I can't believe he's knackered so figure he's resting to have a go on the climb. My assessment was entirely correct - my response entirely incorrect - as he did indeed attack on the penultimate time up the climb. He's a funny old rider, strong as an ox but no real punch - he just sort of rides away. So next problem is I'm on the front on the climb when he goes. Probably ticking over at 18ish mph, I would guess, so enough that the wind make a difference. He comes cruising up and past. So in my head I'm thinking "I'm already riding pretty hard here. I'm going to have to bury myself to go with him. He's got 45 seconds to get across to the break. And he's got maybe 3 miles until he hits the headwind where he's sunk. I reckon he won't make it". (interestingly this was exactly his assessment when I spoke to him afterwards). So I carried on riding. No one else attempted to go with him so evidently I was riding a reasonable tempo.
So he chases like buggery over the top of the climb, and we catch sight of him making contact with the group literally 50m before the left turn into the headwind. Now I think "we're in proper trouble here". Thankfully so did everyone else, and there was a really well organised chase, 15 odd riders with some massive blokes that you need on those sorts of roads (where had they been the last 30 miles?). The gap duly came tumbling and I reckon got down to less than 20 seconds. The problem was that we then got good clear sight of the break (there has previously only been one point on the lap when we could see them) and I think everyone mentally relaxed.
It became apparent over the next 3 miles to the bottom of the finish climb that we weren't going to catch them as everyone started looking to the finish. I hit the bottom of the climb in maybe 5th wheel so was in pretty good shape. Almost got caught the wrong side of the wheel when someone starts going backwards. Very conscious it's a long way to the finish and jumping early is a mistake. Watch as someone else jumps. Let them go. Sitting in 2nd wheel, just waiting - although it's obviously a very tough finish so I'm trying to not go into the red. Someone else jumps with about 300m to go - too far. I wait as it kicks up again just before the line. Then I "jump" in the same way that a 20 stone bloke jumps i.e. not very hard and not very fast. But I come off the wheel and nick back at least one other place before the line for 8th overall
So in summary;
1) Great legs. Definitely one of the strongest there. Did the most pulling in the bunch bar no one (and can feel it this morning!)
2) The composition of the break was ultimately the reason it succeeded - didn't know this at the time of course.
3) Lack of people willing to contribute to the work in the bunch - nothing new there - meant the break stayed away.
4) Hard circuit, scared people into committing to work.
5) Tactical / bottle error in not going with the one guy I knew was strong enough to win.
6) Got beaten in the sprint as a consequence of the amount of work I'd been doing (the guy who beat me I hadn't seen all day!)
7) It's the worst result of the last 3 weeks, but actually I rode harder for longer and dominated the bunch.
8) I need to be more aggressive at the right time - and therein lies the most difficult thing to judge in cycling!
Roll on next week. Another 3/4 race. A short field at the moment so who knows what could happen. I am perfectly capable of winning a race, just need the cards to fall in a certain way. Then two 2/3/4s to finish with. 2nd cat looks more difficult after this weekend - perhaps 70/30 against - but the dream is still alive.
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